Appendix 4
School roll projections for Reception														
Produced July 19 using: Jan 2019 school rolls, GLA 2016-based population projection model (UPC), and Local Plan + LLDC development trajectory, 3 4 option			
																		
Borough																		
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28						
Actual	3,353	3,340															
Projection (3 4)			3,299	3,403	3,364	3,398	3,436	3,469	3,512	3,606	3,658						
Applications	3,305	3,136															
Capacity	3,740	3,766	3,761	3,761	3,761	3,761	3,761	3,761	3,761	3,761	3,761						

Variance (3 4)	Pupils	387	426	462	358	397	363	325	292	249	155	103						
	FE	12.9	14.2	15.4	11.9	13.2	12.1	10.8	9.7	8.3	5.2	3.4						
%	10%	11%	12%	10%	11%	10%	9%	8%	7%	4%	3%						

Reception projections: borough

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500	Actual

2,000	Projection (3 4)
1,500	Applications
Capacity
1,000

500

-
2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28		

		

		

		

		

		

																		

Catchment 1 - Stepney	
(INCLUDES BOTH BONNER SITES)								
	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	
Actual		756	730											
Projection				727		753	716	712	703	696	692	698	699	
Capacity		840	840	840		840	840	840	840	840	840	840	840	

Variance	
Pupils	
84	
110	
113	
87		
124	
128	
137	
144	
148	
142	
141	
	FE	2.8	3.7	3.8		2.9	4.1	4.3	4.6	4.8	4.9	4.7	4.7	
	%	10%	13%	13%		10%	15%	15%	16%	17%	18%	17%	17%	

Catchment 2 -
Bow	

(does not include Bonner sites)																
		2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	
Actual			390		408																		
Projection							366		358		359		358		359		358		359		362	364	
Capacity			450		450		450		450		450		450		450		450		450		450	450	

Variance	
Pupils	
60		
42		
84		
92		
91		
92		
91		
92		
91		
88		
86	
	FE		2.0		1.4		2.8		3.1		3.0		3.1		3.0		3.1		3.0		2.9	2.9	
	%		13%		9%		19%		20%		20%		20%		20%		20%		20%		20%	19%	

Catchment 3 - Poplar	
	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	
Actual		842		866												
Projection						846		866	895	914	934	952	968	1,005	1,022	
Capacity		885		890		890		890	890	890	890	890	890	890	890	

Variance	
Pupils	
43	
24		
44		
24		
-	5	
-	24	
-	44	
-	62	
-	78	
-	115	
-	132	
	FE	1.4		0.8		1.5		0.8	-	0.2	-	0.8	-	1.5	-	2.1	-	2.6	-	3.8	-	4.4	
	%	5%		3%		5%		3%	-1%	-3%	-5%	-7%	-9%	-13%	-15%	

Catchment 4 - Isle of Dogs	
	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	
Actual		419	410											
Projection					406	438	449	472	500	527	556	591	617	
Capacity		425	425		441	441	441	441	441	441	441	441	441	

Variance	
Pupils	
6	
15	
35		
3	
-	8	
-	31	
-	59	
-	86	
-	115	
-	150	
-	176	
	FE	0.2	0.5		1.2	0.1	-	0.3	-	1.0	-	2.0	-	2.9	-	3.8	-	5.0	-	5.9	
	%	1%	4%		8%	1%	-2%	-7%	-13%	-20%	-26%	-34%	-40%	

Catchment 5 - Wapping	
	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	
Actual		418		418																		
Projection						409		416		402		400		396		392		388		389	388	
Capacity		480		480		480		480		480		480		480		480		480		480	480	

Variance	
Pupils	
62	
62		
71		
64		
78		
80		
84		
88		
92		
91		
92	
	FE	2.1		2.1		2.4		2.1		2.6		2.7		2.8		2.9		3.1		3.0	3.1	
	%	13%		13%		15%		13%		16%		17%		18%		18%		19%		19%	19%	

Catchment 6 - Bethnal Green	
	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	
Actual		528	508										
Projection				528	539	517	513	514	513	516	524	529	
Capacity		660	660	660	660	660	660	660	660	660	660	660	

Variance	Pupils	132	152	132	121	143	147	146	147	144	136	131	
	FE	4.4	5.1	4.4	4.0	4.8	4.9	4.9	4.9	4.8	4.5	4.4	
	%	20%	23%	20%	18%	22%	22%	22%	22%	22%	21%	20%	

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

-

Actual Projection Acceptances Capacity

School roll projections for Year 7													
Produced July 19 using: Jan 2019 school rolls, GLA 2017-based population projection model (UPC), and Local Plan + LLDC development trajectory, 3 4 option	
																
Borough																
2017/18  2018/19  2019/20  2020/21  2021/22  2022/23  2023/24  2024/25  2025/26  2026/27  2027/28				
Actual	2,956	2,908													
Projection			3,051	3,014	3,090	3,084	3,163	3,102	3,099	3,072	3,153				
Acceptances	3,078	3,009													
Capacity	3,152	3,233	3,233	3,263	3,263	3,263	3,263	3,263	3,263	3,263	3,263				
	Pupils	196	325	182	249	173	179	100	161	164	191	110				
Variance	FE	6.5	10.8	6.1	8.3	5.8	6.0	3.3	5.4	5.5	6.4	3.7				
%	6%	10%	6%	8%	5%	5%	3%	5%	5%	6%	3%				

2,956

2,908

3,051

3,014

3,090

3,084

3,163

3,102

3,099

3,072

3,153

		

		

		

		

		

		

Summary of the School Roll Projection Methodology

Tower Hamlets Council commissions school roll projections through the Greater London Authority (GLA), like most other London boroughs. GLA have access to data on all pupils in London (via the National Pupil Database) which enables them to model movements across borough boundaries in a way that would be difficult for an individual authority.

Projections are run each year in March/April using the following methodology:

Step 1.	The borough’s population is projected based on demographic trends (e.g. births, deaths, and migration) and the borough’s housing development trajectory using planning data submitted by the council.

Step 2.	The flow of pupils from their ward of residence (including those out of borough) to each mainstream state school is determined, based on the Spring School Census and estimates of the number of children living in each ward. These are turned into ratios, for example, one in five Year 1 pupils living in XYZ Ward go to ABC Primary School. These existing ratios are not available for new children entering school in Reception, so these ratios are determined based on previous years.

Step 3.	The number of pupils in each school is projected by multiplying the flow ratios by the populations in each ward. For example, if one in five Year 1 pupils in XYZ Ward go to ABC Primary School, and it is projected that there will be 100 Year 1 pupils in the ward, then 20 pupils from this ward are expected to go to ABC Primary. The number of pupils from each ward is then added up for each school.

Step 4.	Projections are aggregated to catchment area and borough-level to improve reliability.

Step 5.	Validation of pupil numbers and local intelligence checks are made against GLA projections.

Scrutiny on the reliability and accuracy of the pupil forecasting system has taken place over the summer. Historically GLA forecasting has over-estimated the numbers of pupils expected in Reception and Year 7 for medium and long term planning purposes; Tower Hamlet’s recent figures fall within the tolerances set by the Department for Education (DfE) for total pupils projected. The main conclusion from the review of the methodology for calculating demand and projections on primary and secondary places is that it is fit for purpose. The overall primary and secondary phase projections are robust and ensure that the local authority is complying with its statutory duty to ensure a school place for every child that wants one, and as far as possible, in the place where they want it.

To further enrich localised planning within the borough, a complementary forecasting system is in development to use in conjunction with the GLA projections. This will be stress tested and put in place to further embed accuracy within the pupil place planning area.

The unprecedented growth in residential developments within LBTH has not, as yet, yielded the number of children expected in our schools. The LA must be mindful and vigilant, should this trend change.  Pupil forecasting is just one of a number of tools used to plan for future school demand and much discussion and intelligence sharing between internal departments, the GLA and neighbouring boroughs has taken place to ensure a joined up approach.  Pupil forecasting can be skewed significantly in times of change, such as LBTH has experienced during recent years – as such, ongoing scrutiny of patterns of live births, school admissions, pupil migration and flow should be monitored and a flexible place planning strategy put in place to enjoy best value for Tower Hamlet’s children, ensuring sufficient school places are in the right place at the right time.